- During the next two years, the Republicans must defend 25 of their 29 governorships, while the Democrats (with 19 governors) must defend only 11. (Two states have independent governors.)

- The GOP will not enjoy the advantages of incumbency in 13 of the 25 seats they must defend. Term limits, retirements and appointments to Bush administration posts have taken many incumbent governors out of the running.

-The economic recession is slashing voter incomes and sales tax receipts, a key source of state revenue. This is straining state budgets and angering voters, who tend to blame Republicans for the recession.

- Republicans must defend seats in a number of key states that Al Gore carried last year: New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Pennsyvania, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Florida (perhaps the tightest toss-up in U.S. history) also is in play.

Kohut says the GOP “is in trouble” in the following states and he gives the Democrats a good shot at capturing the Governor’s Mansion: Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. Two other major states, Texas and New York, “bear watching,” 
he advises.

Internal Divisions Plague GOP
Politics is a fascinating mix of farce and high drama; sacrifice and self-interest; intuition and science.

It is riddled with irony, and one of the richest ironies of all is the saga of the Republican governors. 

Just look at the decades of patient, brilliant party-building by such Right Wing activists as Gingrich, Wyrich, Robertson and Reed.

They finally triumphed in 1994 with the GOP takeover of the House and Senate and the subsequent capture of 32 of the 50 Governor’s seats.

But the same fiery Right Wing dogma that fueled the Republican revival rapidly alienated large sections of the voting public, including many Republicans. 

And the Republican governors themselves (the darlings of this “party of governors”) were among the first to distance themselves from Right Wing firebrands who had blazed the path for their elections.

With the notable exception of labor issues, the Republican governors have largely rejected the rhetoric and programs of the Political Right. Their move to the political middle has infuriated the most conservative, active wing of the GOP, creating strains and splits in the Republican ranks. For example, a recent article in the leading conservative magazine The National Review ripped the Republican Governors, using language it normally reserved for the likes of Teddy Kennedy: “obnoxious-namby-pamby-left-leaning-tax hikers.”

This internal assault by the Radical Right is another factor working in the Democrat’s favor in the upcoming gubernatorial elections.

“The Republicans have been successful at the state level because they’ve been far more practical and less ideological than they have been in Congress,” explains veteran political analyst Jack Germond. “And where they haven’t done that, they’ve run into problems. Look at Pete Wilson, the former governor of California. He really foundered by taking all   these harsh Right Wing positions on immigration and  so forth.

“Governors have to do real stuff; make real decisions. In Congress if you have a problem or a crisis, you hold a hearing and give speeches. If you are a governor and there’s a crisis in your state -- a prison riot or a big storm -- you have to actually deal with it -- with the voters and everyone else looking over your shoulder,” said Germond.