New York - 23,800 IAM Members
Gov. George Pataki has a major problem. There are two million more registered Democrats than Republicans in New York state, where he was barely elected in 1994 and received only 54.3 percent of the vote in 1998. 

Since taking office, Pataki has nearly doubled the state debt to $41 billion by slashing taxes and borrowing billio  ns of dollars for projects including the renovation of the Buffalo Bills’ stadium. New York now ranks fourth in the nation in debt-per-person, and is tied with Louisiana for the worst credit rating in the country. 

Pataki has alienated his state’s influential Conservative Party (no New York Republican has ever been elected governor without their endorsement) and he may be challenged by ex-New York Giant football player Phil McConkey. 

Democrats considering a run for governor include former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Andrew Cuomo (son of the former NY Democratic governor) and a popular African American, State Comptroller Carl McCall.

Wisconsin - 24,400 IAM Members
Scott McCallum became governor when Tommy Thompson quit to become Bush’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. “McCallum has served 12 years as Lieutenant Governor, but the people still have absolutely no idea who he is. He is in for a very tough race,” according to Kohut.

McCallum faces a strong roster of possible Democratic contenders and his best hope is for a bloody primary in which the Dems attack one another and weaken the party.

Possible Democratic candidates include: Congressmen Ron Kind and Tom Barrett, Attorney General Jim Doyle and Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk.

Florida - 11,500 IAM Members
Forget the rumors, Kohut says: Gov. Jeb Bush will definitely run for re-election. But Florida promises a mega-bucks brawl, no matter what. The 2000 election scandal ("An awful situation" for Gov. Bush’s administration, in Kohut’s words) left Florida Democrats licking their wounds and looking for revenge. Bush is also vulnerable on education and the environment Ð both big issues in Florida.

Many quality Democrats are lining up to take on Bush: Lois Frankel, State House Minority Leader; attorney Bill McBride and former State Sen. Daryl Jones. But the biggest name of all is former Atty. Gen. Janet Reno, who was elected five times as State Attorney for Miami-Dade County.

With Reno, the president’s brother and the stench of Election 2000 hanging in the air, this will be a big-dollar, media riot: a national contest, and a very, very hot one.

Michigan - 10,600 IAM Members
Three-term Republican Gov. John Engler can’t run again and polls show Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumous is in trouble, no matter who he runs against. Already trailing Democrats Attorney General Jennifer Granholm and former Governor Jim Blanchard in the polls, Posthumous now has another strong, well-known challenger in Democratic David Bonior. Holding onto Michigan "will be a battle for the GOP," Kohut predicts.

Illinois - 40,500 IAM Members
Republican Gov. George Ryan recently bowed to the inevitable and stepped out of the race after a fund-raising scandal pushed his polling numbers so low that 67 percent of the voters declared he shouldn’t seek a second term. Into the breach stepped several Republican hopefuls: Atty. General Jim Ryan (no relation), State Sen. Patrick O’Malley and Lt. Gov. Corinne Wood.

Several well-known, popular Democrats have lined up to run, hoping to prevail in a state that Al Gore carried easily by 11 percentage points. 

Democratic hopefuls include Congressman Rod Blagojevich, former state Attorney General Roland Burris and former Chicago schools superintendent Paul Vallas.

Editor’s Note:  Kohut’s comments on the candidates or potential candidates named in this article do not represent an endorsement, or lack of endorsement, by the IAM or the Machinists Non-Partisan Political League.