Too Close to Call House Races


« Contents

Don't Vote, Don't Vent

Critical Issues for Working Families

Who Will Lead the Next Congress?

The Tightest Senate Races

Too Close to Call House Races

Power Shifting in 36 States

Women on the Edge of a Breakthrough


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Friends like Connecticut Democrat Jim Maloney, far left with hand raised, showed up at the rally to keep Stanley Works in the U.S. His opponent, Nancy Johnson, wouldn’t even meet with IAM members from her district.

Control of the U.S. House hinges on just a handful of close races out of 435 seats up for grabs. The stakes are enormous.

Voter turnout this November will decide who controls the House. In the last three House elections, no party has won more than fifty percent of the total votes cast. With voters split this closely between parties, increasing turnout by just a tiny margin can swing key races.

This year’s House election is also the first since the redrawing of Congressional districts after the 2000 census.

Ten states, most in the industrial Northeast, lost House seats and eight states in the South and Southwest gained.

District boundaries were redrawn in all states, allowing mapmakers to add or subtract friendly voters to an incumbent’s district or to pit incumbents against each other in new districts.

Here are just a few of the closest House races on November 5th:

Big Stakes in Iowa
Iowa went from a safe GOP haven into the close race column when the state’s non-partisan redistricting commission created one district with a heavy concentration of GOP voters. They divided the other four more evenly, with three districts having more Democrats than Republicans.

“Iowa is at the epicenter of the effort to win back   the House,” said House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt.

Iowa 2nd                 
Leach vs. Thomas
When incumbent Rep. Jim Leach was put in the same district as fellow GOP member Jim Nussle, Leach moved back to Iowa City to run in his former 2nd District. Leach faces Democratic challenger Julie Thomas in the redrawn 2nd, which now has a 58 percent Democratic margin.

Thomas, a pediatrician from Cedar Rapids, pledges strong support for federal legislation to protect workers from ergonomics  injuries; opposes privatizing Social Security and supports covering all seniors with full prescription coverage under Medicare.

Leach, in his 13th  term, voted in favor of Fast Track; voted to repeal the ergonomics standard; voted for a bill that would have substituted “comp time” for overtime pay and favored the GOP watered-down prescription drug plan for seniors.

Iowa 1st District     
Nussle vs. Hutchinson
GOP incumbent Jim Nussle, chairman of the House Budget Committee, goes up against Bettendorf Mayor Ann Hutchinson.

Nussle, in his sixth term, has voted against working family issues 90 percent of his time in Congress. He voted against increasing the minimum wage; voted for Fast Track and normal trade relations with China; voted to repeal the ergonomics standard and voted for tax cuts for the wealthy instead of protecting Social Security.

Hutchinson favors increasing the minimum wage enough to bring people out of poverty; opposes unfair trade deals like NAFTA and Fast Track and supports strengthening Social Security.

Connecticut 5th       
Maloney vs. Johnson
Connecticut lost one House seat to redistricting which forced incumbents Jim Maloney (D) and Nancy Johnson (R) to run for one seat. Three-term Congressman Maloney has a strong pro-labor record. He voted against Fast Track, supported increasing the minimum wage and protected prevailing wage laws.

Maloney helped IAM members at Pratt and Whitney and Stanley Works block moves to send work overseas.

By contrast, 10-term Johnson, whose district includes Stanley Works in New Britain, supported legislation to help Stanley keep the “Made in USA” label on its popular tool line while they were sending thousands of U.S. production jobs to Mexico and China. When IAM members from her own district tried to meet with her, Johnson cancelled on the day of the meeting and said no other time or aide was available, leaving several IAM members standing outside her office.

Illinois 19th             
Phelps vs. Shimkus
Redistricting will pit two incumbents, Democrat David Phelps against Republican John Shimkus, in a large 30-county district.

Phelps, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat, opposed Fast Track, calling it a threat to Congress’s constitutional ability to regulate trade and protect the public on issues like antitrust rules, food safety and accounting standards.

Phelps says strong prescription drug coverage is a “moral obligation for the wealthiest country in  the world.”

Shimkus backed Fast Track and supported a meager GOP prescription drug plan for seniors. A group funded primarily by the pharmaceutical industry ran an ad praising Shimkus for supporting the GOP bill.

Minnesota 2nd         
Luther vs. Kline
In their third election contest, Republican challenger John Kline faces incumbent Democrat Bill Luther.

Redistricting forced Luther to run in a reshaped district that has fewer potential supporters, giving Kline an edge.

Luther is a strong supporter of labor issues, including protecting Social Security and opposing Fast Track.

Kline supports Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security and is endorsed by business-backed groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Pennsylvania
GOP control of the redistricting process makes Pennsylvania an important battleground state. Reps. Bob Borski, who introduced legislation to curb foreign repair of U.S. aircraft, and William Coyne were forced to retire when their new districts forced them to run against other incumbent Democrats.

Remaining candidates face tough races in new districts that favor GOP candidates. Two races, however, are close and are crucial to gaining back the House.

Pennsylvania 17th   
Holden vs. Gekas
Conservative ‘Blue Dog’ Democrat Tim Holden squares off against veteran Republican George Gekas. Redistricting gave Gekas an edge, more than 60 percent of the new 17th comes from his former district. Holden ended up with less than 40 percent of his old district. But Holden is used to campaigning in a largely Republican district and holds an advantage in fundraising.

Holden strongly opposes privatization and damaging trade deals. He opposed Fast Track, noting that 34 companies in his district are currently eligible for trade adjustment assistance, meaning they have lost jobs to trade deals.

Gekas recently switched his position from supporting President Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security to now opposing it and is a strong supporter of Fast Track.

Pennsylvania 6th
Wofford vs. Gerlach
GOP State Senator Jim Gerlach is battling Dan Wofford, son of former       U.S. Senator Harris Wofford.

The new district gives Gerlach an edge among registered voters, but Wofford is making the race a key target for regaining Democratic control of the House.

With many retired seniors having to return to work after the stock market crash wiped out their savings, the election has centered on protecting Social Security and curbing corporate wrongdoing.

Wofford was eager to take the pledge to protect Social Security, saying “We all want to know that there is something we can depend on in life, especially in our retirement.”

Gerlach is getting help from Republican heavyweights, including a campaign swing through his district by Vice President Dick Cheney.

Florida 5th          
Thurman vs Brown-Waite
The GOP-controlled Florida state legislature targeted incumbent Democrat Karen Thurman and gave registered Republicans a majority in the new district. Thurman faces GOP challenger Ginny Brown-Waite, a moderate who calls herself a “common-sense” conservative. Brown-Waite, however, was pushed to the right by an ultra-conservative challenger in the GOP primary.

Thurman has a strong pro-labor record, including voting against Fast Track. She is a strong advocate for seniors. After a study she commissioned showed U.S. drug prices were higher than other countries, she proposed requiring drug companies to keep their prices in line with countries such as Canada, England and Germany.

More Close House Races to Watch:

State & District Democrat Republican
New Jersey 5th    Anne Sumers Scott Garrett
Maryland 8th  Chris Van Hollen  Connie Morella
Texas 5th   Ron Chapman  Jeb Hensarling
Florida 24th  Harry Jacobs Tom Feeney